Chapter 134: Overestimated

On the twenty-fourth day of the twelfth lunar month in the second year of Chongzhen, it was once again the birthday of the Chongzhen Emperor.

Snowflakes drifted over the sky above Yan'an Prefecture, draping a layer of silvery white over the rolling, loess-yellow mountains of northern Shaanxi.

An old northern Shaanxi bandit braved the snow and stepped into Xingzi River.

When Gao Yingxiang arrived, Liu Chengzong was bare-chested, swinging an iron pickaxe on the frozen Xingzi River. The piercing cold cast a faint red hue over his skin, and steam rose slightly from the sweat on his head.

Soon, Chengyun brought forward a hand-drawn cotton towel. After wiping away his sweat, Liu Chengzong hurriedly put on his clothes, let out a heavy breath of white vapor, and asked, "Master Gao?"

"What are you doing? Never mind, let's skip that. Hurry, quickly bring me inside to warm up."

Liu Chengzong had been exercising in the morning. After a run, he chipped a hole in the river ice, wiped his sweat, and dressed. His whole body was still radiating heat.

Gao Yingxiang was different. Having ridden a horse all the way from Yanchang County, his eyebrows and beard were crusted with icicles. He urged his mount directly into the courtyard.

Seeing his condition, Liu Chengzong abandoned the idea of taking him up the mountain and led him straight into Lin Wei's residence at the foot of the mountain.

Along with his five personal guards, the six men made straight for the heated brick kang the moment they entered the room, shivering violently from the cold.

Liu Chengzong deliberately stood outside for a while until the sweat on his body had completely evaporated. Only then did he walk into the warmed room and ask, "Why has Master Gao come?"

"How could I not come? You sent your top general, Cao Ya, with troops past Yanchang heading east. What time is it, and you still dare to divide your forces!"

As he spoke, Gao Yingxiang retrieved seven or eight folded sheets of paper from his attendant and handed them over, saying, "Take a look!"

Taking the letters, Liu Chengzong roughly scanned the topmost one. It was much like the letter delivered to Zuotianmao a short while ago.

Only the demands were reversed. The letter Gao Yingxiang handed him stated that if the imperial court sent someone to pacify them, they should agree to pacification; if the court sent troops to suppress them, they should agree to surrender.

The promised official rank at the end was likewise lower, merely a captain.

Liu Chengzong chuckled as he read it. "This Yang He has quite a few little tricks. These are fakes. I have this letter here too."

Gao Yingxiang said with displeasure, "Read further down."

The smile on Liu Chengzong's face froze. He continued to read the next letter, flipping through several in succession. His lighthearted expression remained unchanged until he reached the last two letters, at which point he clenched his teeth and muttered softly, "Damn it."

Every letter Gao Yingxiang brought was different. The preceding ones were generally similar, lacking any addressee, and contained various arrangements for upcoming actions, whether suppressing or pacifying and persuading surrender.

Some instructed that if pacification was offered, it should be accepted; others instructed not to accept pacification; some said to surrender, others told leaders not to surrender; some advised leaders to flee, while others urged them to fight to the death.

Basically, whatever choices subordinates might make when faced with pacification or suppression were covered in these letters.

Liu Chengzong considered this to be a stratagem of alienation, exploiting the loose organization among the various rebel leaders to sow mutual suspicion, making everyone feel endangered, thereby causing them to panic and undermining the combat effectiveness of each faction.

These letters were meant to be discovered. Once a leader knew such a letter existed and asked his subordinates how the imperial court's pacification should be handled, anyone who agreed to pacification might be a court spy, and anyone who opposed it might also be a court spy.

Then the leader could no longer lead.

With this letter in existence, whenever the leader asked a question, the subordinates wouldn't dare answer or offer plans, knowing that whatever they said would be suspected as being a court spy.

Then the subordinates could no longer serve.

The reason Liu Chengzong was certain this was a scheme of alienation was because the fake ones were far more powerful than real ones.

If they were real, they would actually be useless.

What people feared was the spy himself, not the suggestions regarding whether to surrender, fight, or flee.

In this regard, Liu Chengzong was rather proud, because this was ineffective against the Lion Camp.

If one expected a Water Margin-style bandit chief to always have a cunning strategist by his side, this tactic would work.

Yet the Lion Camp had no intellectual figures whatsoever, nor did it practice bandit-style democracy. The only exception was Cao Ya, who could patch up loopholes based on his extensive bandit experience.

And based on Liu Chengzong's understanding of Cao Ya, Cao Ya wished he could stay as far away from official authorities as possible—this didn't even depend on whether Cao Ya was loyal to him or not.

Liu Chengzong was not afraid of Cao Ya surrendering at all.

If someone else surrendered, they might turn back around and take orders to fight the peasant army.

If Cao Ya surrendered, he would avoid doing any work for the official government whenever possible. For all anyone knew, he might be sleeping in the main camp today, and tomorrow he would scam some military grain and pay before taking his trusted aides back into the mountains.

Aside from Cao Ya, the mastermind and frontline vanguard of the entire force had been solely shouldered by Liu Chengzong over the past half year.

He had also been forged into someone stronger through this process.

If these letters were fake, nothing would happen as long as he didn't believe them.

If these letters were real, they were still completely useless, provided he strictly disciplined his soldiers and gave them no opportunity to leak information to the government.

On the twenty-fourth day of the twelfth lunar month in the second year of Chongzhen, it was once again the birthday of the Chongzhen Emperor.

However, the last two letters brought by Gao Yingxiang were different.

They were two letters persuading surrender, specifically aimed at persuading internal agents to surrender. They stated that if one held these letters upon surrender, one would be pardoned of all crimes and granted an official rank based on the surrendered troops.

Seeing the grave expression on his face, Gao Yingxiang knew he had seen those two letters and said, "I blocked Cao Ya for you. If you still want to let him go, send someone else to give him another word. But if you ask me, when the government is trying to subvert our men, it's best to keep all troops under close watch."

Liu Chengzong pulled over a wooden stool and sat down. Without immediately replying to Gao Yingxiang, he rested his chin in his hand and pondered for a moment before turning to ask, "Master Gao, how did you find these letters?"

"Not from my end. Hun Tianwang returned to Yanchuan, and Hun Tianhou is in Luochuan. In the winter, their subordinates scatter to live among the common folk. By the time someone delivered the letters to them, the letters were already everywhere."

Hearing this, Liu Chengzong's expression returned to ease, and he smiled. "Master Gao, you overestimate them."

"Overestimate? Overestimate what?"

He flicked several sheets of letter paper with two fingers. "You overestimate the impact of these letters, and the government overestimates us... Among your subordinates, how many are literate? Can you read them, can they read them?"

Liu Chengzong estimated that these letters would have zero impact.

Alienation was fine, and it was disgusting.

But this trick was devised by scholars who had detached themselves from the social environment.

If you asked in towns and villages, perhaps forty out of a hundred people were literate, but those who could keep accounts, write letters, and read books numbered fewer than five.

Famine victims and vagrants turned into roving bandits had an even lower level of literacy.

Given the current cultural level of the roving bandits, if a letter were handed over, out of five leaders, three wouldn't recognize the words.

Let alone the subordinates.

When the subordinates of Hun Tianhou and Hun Tianwang got their hands on these letters, they would at most pick up a piece of paper to pad a table leg. Using it to wipe one's ass in the outhouse would only risk getting ink all over oneself.

Gao Yingxiang was stunned by the question. He turned it over in his mind and realized it indeed seemed to be the case.

"Tch, I'm not saying harsh words, but it's the same in my forces. Out of ten thousand people, you couldn't pick out fifty who could read this letter from start to finish."

Liu Chengzong waved his hand across the edge of the table, pointing at the letters. "Of those few who are literate, how many pieces of this worthless paper can actually fall into their hands? Master Gao, you can rest easy. Just have people keep a close eye on the literate ones in your camp, and everything will be fine."

Liu Chengzong said this primarily to steady Gao Yingxiang's mind and to have Gao Yingxiang pacify the other leaders as well.

Because he knew very well that for the forces of Hun Tianhou, Hun Tianwang, and others, this matter was an insoluble dead end.

Regardless of whether the letters were true or false, they had no way to respond and no capability to handle such a situation.

If the leaders' minds remained stable, they could leave it to fate; if the leaders panicked, then it wouldn't be up to Heaven anymore—the massive yet loosely organized forces would directly collapse.

Feeling the room was a bit stuffy, Liu Chengzong walked over to the wall and propped open the wooden window. Instantly, a gust of cold wind mixed with snowflakes rushed into the room, clearing his dizzy head.

Following his train of thought, he continued, "Hun Tianwang received them in Yanchuan, Hun Tianhou received them in Luochuan, my father intercepted some in Yan'an Prefecture city half a month ago, yet Master Gao in Yanchang and myself in Ansai haven't received any. What does this mean?"

Was that even a question?

Gao Yingxiang didn't even deign to answer.

Liu Chengzong didn't expect an answer either, merely sorting out his own logic. "Three routes advancing simultaneously: Yang He in Guyuan, Hong Chengchou in Hancheng, and to the north... No, Guyuan should be slower than the north. Could it be Zhang Nian?"

Gao Yingxiang added, "To the north, it should be Ai Wannian, the garrison general of Shenmu, and Ai Mu, the garrison general of Ningzhai. Heng Tianwang mentioned them, and also next year."

As if he had just remembered the matter, Gao Yingxiang looked at Liu Chengzong and asked, "Yan'an Prefecture is snowing, and then there are these letters. What are your plans for next year?"

As the saying goes, a timely snow promises a good harvest.

But for him, snow was no good omen.

If a bountiful year arrived, they would be finished.

On this magical land of northern Shaanxi, a single snowfall could change many things.

The common people who were protected by them and provided them with intelligence would no longer need to resist taxes.

"This morning I just sent someone to Zuotianmao to have my father find another place to hide. My people have nowhere left to hide; next year, we'll probably have to roam about everywhere."

"When I came over, I saw the river valley fields were all planted with wheat. Can you bear to abandon that?"

"With this snowfall, the eleven qing of wheat fields in the river valley might yield nine dou. If next year isn't a drought, over fifty qing of hillside fields and sixty-0dd qing of donated fields yielding four dou of rent—just this single place could support a whole camp of my men."

Counting the harvests along the Xingzi River, Liu Chengzong shook his head and smiled, "Even if I can't bear to leave it, what else can I do? I plan to have my eldest brother come over. If we can hold it, we'll hold it. If we can't, it means we don't have the fate to eat that grain."

The farmland at Xingzi River's Wang Manor was so vast it left Gao Yingxiang and his personal guards dumbfounded.

It even made Gao Yingxiang blurt out, "If I bring my forces to join you here, can we hold it?"

Liu Chengzong gave a half-smile. "Master Gao, what do you think?"

Actually, it was quite likely they could hold it—they could hold off the first and second attacks.

However, the first attack would expose them to the sight of the imperial army, and the second attack would bring massive armies pressing down, simultaneously dispatching troops and generals to seal off all key routes.

Afterward, they would inevitably deploy heavy artillery, press in step-by-step, seize water sources and fertile fields for a siege, use alienation and internal agents for a forced assault, and finally either break out or be starved to death under siege.

Yet if they had to break out in the end, what would be the point of desperately defending the place for a month, half a year, or even a year?

Gao Yingxiang shook his head and clicked his tongue. "It just feels a pity. Others aren't like you; they aren't afraid of these letters, and all the other leaders plan to hide far away... Shanxi, are you going?"

"Everyone is going to Shanxi?"

Gao Yingxiang nodded. "Everyone is going to Shanxi. Heng Tianwang will set off from Fugu and Hequ to deal with Ai Wannian and enter Shanxi; Zuoguazi and Hun Tianhou will go to Hancheng to seek revenge on Hong Chengchou and enter Puzhou; Buzhanqi will set off from Jiazhou, and I will cross the river from Wubu."

This meant an all-out offensive into Shanxi.

Liu Chengzong asked, "And what about Shaanxi?"

"Li Laochai and Lao Huihui don't want to go to Shanxi. This time into Shanxi, the northern forces will fight southward, and the southern forces will fight northward. Since Lao Huihui and Li Laochai aren't going, they will be left to guard the Suide, Qingjian, and Yichuan line. What do you think?"

Liu Chengzong calculated silently in his heart.

Along the northern border wall, the imperial army was being stalled by Wang Jiayin and Lao Huihui; along the southern Hancheng line, Wang Zuogua and Li Laochai would naturally handle them.

This meant the only ones left were the imperial forces from the Qingyang direction, where local forces included Han Chaozai and the brothers Liu Liu and Liu Qi, while the northern gateway of Yan'an Prefecture also held Ren Quan'er's Saimen Garrison.

With things arranged this way, his father and brother remaining near Yan'an Prefecture city wouldn't be particularly dangerous.

"When do we set out?"

"March next year."

Liu Chengzong nodded. "Then I want to take the Yanshui Pass."

He was familiar with Yanshui Pass, and most importantly, he was familiar with the target.

Earlier this year, when he only had a few hundred men, he had already scouted from afar the manor lands of King Qingcheng of the Shanxi Princely House in Fenzhou Prefecture, though he had been blocked back then by the Guangwuzhuang Patrol Office in the Lüliang Mountains.

This time would be different. He was going to push into Xiaoyi, capture a few manors belonging to King Qingcheng's estate, and distribute some grain to the common folk of Shanxi as well.

Such matters were best done early rather than late; if he waited, the manors would be gone.

Gao Yingxiang didn't stay long at Xingzi River. After just a meal, he galloped back to Yanchang. Accompanying him was Wei Qian'er, who was sent to convey the verbal message to Cao Ya to continue eastward and scout the situation at Yanshui Pass.

Just two days before the New Year, Liu Chengzong took Brow Captain and Little Drill Wind back to Zuotianmao.

The Panlong River basin was plagued by rats, which made Brow Captain immensely happy. She had endless work, catching them from New Year's Eve all the way to the third day of the first lunar month.

Eating them herself wasn't enough; as if she finally had a chance to repay Liu Chengzong for raising her, during the days they spent celebrating the New Year back at Zuotianmao, the old roosters of the Liu family were practically put out of a job.

Every morning, before dawn, Liu Chengzong would be woken up by the loud scolding of the little cat at his door.

Outside the threshold would inevitably lie a neat row of fat, black rats.

This wasn't Brow Captain showing off her work results; it was actually her way of calling him to breakfast.

And truthfully, in northern Shaanxi during these years, because so many people dared to defy the heavens and refuse to yield, all living things grew lean—except the rats, which grew fat.

They feared the cold too, and in winter they had to seek out humans, drilling into houses and digging holes.

According to the villagers of Zuotianmao, when some households were about to run out of food, they would sneak back to Heilong Mountain to hoe the ground, digging for seeds they had sown earlier that failed to sprout.

They would dig up nothing, as the seeds buried in the earth simply vanished.

Once they found a rat hole and dug it open, it was always a sure hit; inside were piles of unsprouted seeds hoarded by the rats, enough to boil half a pot of porridge at a time.

Master Liu was a man who could keep things to himself. During the New Year festivities, when Liu Chengzong discussed his plans for the spring, he hadn't said much. It wasn't until the third day, just before he was to return to Xingzi River, that he stopped him during breakfast.

"Lion, you're taking your troops toward Shanxi around February. Before you leave, go back to Heilong Mountain once and deal with that brother-in-law of the prefectural magistrate, so the family can properly worship our ancestors during the Qingming Festival."

Liu Chengzong bowed his head, shoveling rice into his mouth, and asked vaguely, "What about Zhang Nian?"

"Zhang Nian's fine. Anyone can just fire a musket in the city."

Speaking of this, Liu Xiangyan was so furious his teeth itched. "That brother-in-law of his moved into the stronghold we built! To think the Liu family built a stronghold for him!"